Modeling the future distributions of Centropus bengalensis (Lesser coucal) in Muara Gembong Wetlands, West Java, Indonesia, related to CMIP5 climate change scenarios
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Abstract. Wibowo AA, Meylani V, Pratiwi NA, Febriani DN, Suryawati NN. 2024. Modeling the future distributions of Centropus bengalensis (Lesser coucal) in Muara Gembong Wetlands, West Java, Indonesia, related to CMIP5 climate change scenarios. Intl J Bonorowo Wetlands 14: 49-56. Wetlands and their water birds have been threatened recently due to climate change. In West Java, Muara Gembong is a threatened wetland along with lesser coucal (Centropus bengalensis, Gmelin 1788). This study aimed to model and forecast the distribution of Lesser coucal in the remaining wetland habitats to support species conservation. The novelty of this study is that it uses future Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) based on climate change scenarios. Modeling was performed based on SDM using R platforms incorporating 19 bioclimatic variables. The climate change scenarios used trajectories based on the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) using RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 trajectories for 2050 and 2070. A multicollinearity test was performed, and the coucal occurrences were recorded at five sampling points. The results show climate change scenarios will significantly alter the suitable habitats for coucal, and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) is 0.75. The distribution of the species is mostly affected by isothermality (Bio 3), temperature annual range (Bio 7), and precipitation seasonality (Bio 15). In the low emission scenario, or RCP 2.6, from 2050 to 2070, it is predicted that the suitable habitats for coucals will be increased and expanded to the east and the north in coastal areas. Habitats classified in 2050 as less suitable will become moderately suitable in 2070 under the RCP 2.6 scenario. This condition is contrary to the high emission scenario under RCP 8.5. In this scenario, the habitats with high suitability only increased slightly. At the same time, and opposite to the low emission scenario, the RCP 8.5 scenario will cause moderately suitable habitats to become less suitable or have low suitability. This study provides empirical evidence of how a climate change scenario with high emissions can impact the water birds living in the wetlands.
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