Drought risk analysis by using decision network in production centers of rice in West Java

Abstract

Suciantini, Buono A, Boer R. 2017. Drought risk analysis by using decision network in production centers of rice in West Java. Pros Sem Nas Masy Biodiv Indon 7: 62-68. One of the most important information in the scheduling of planting for farmers is planting calendar. Information about planting calendar has been prepared by Indonesian Agro-climate and Hydrology Research Institute, Indonesian Agency for Agricultural Research and Development, Ministry of Agriculture since 2007 and developed every year. Preparation of the dynamic planting calendar is conducted through a network of decision-making (decision network). Decision network (DN) can be applied as a coping strategy form of cropping pattern based on the forecast of season to overcome the problem of drought. The drought may occur in second planting if the rainfall below normal, or early entered the rainy season is delayed, so the second planting setbacks. This study describes the results of the analysis of dynamic cropping calendar as a tool for decision maker in developing the planting strategies to minimize the risk of climate, but on the other hand it can increase the economic benefits. The research was conducted by automation of dynamic cropping calendar system model whose its concept was developed from the research conducted by the Department of Geophysics and Meteorology, IPB in collaboration with the Climate Study Center IPB (CCROM-SEAP, IPB). Automation system of planting calendar was conducted in 10 districts in West Java, namely Bandung, Ciamis, Cianjur, Cirebon, Garut, Indramayu, Karawang, Majalengka, Subang and Sukabumi Districts. The results of the utility function was a dynamic planting calendar indicator which shows the extent of drought that may occur (k) and the choice of cropping pattern that can be conducted for planting during the growing season II (D value). In general, the level of risk of drought will rise sharply in k4 level of risk (the level of severe drought). Timeliness of planting is expected to minimize the losses due to yield loss. The calculation of risk of drought level by using ideal planting pattern is expected to contribute an optimal rice production and reduce the risk of crop failure if the drought happened. SOI value information combined with the prediction of the rainfall condition in May to December is expected to be the starting point for planning planting.