Estimation of current and future distribution of Ruellia tuberosa in Java and Madura Island, Indonesia
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Abstract. Santika YE, Wardha'adlina WA, Arta YPA, Maheswara VD, Wiraatmaja MF, Setyawan AD. 2024. Estimation of current and future distribution of Ruellia tuberosa in Java and Madura Island, Indonesia. Pros Sem Nas Masy Biodiv Indon 10: 32-44. Ruellia tuberosa L. or Blue-bell originates from Central America. This plant spreads to Southeast Asia and grows in dry, hot, tropical, and subtropical areas, fast in humid and shady areas, and 150 meters above sea level (masl). Ruellia tuberosa is identified as an invasive plant that can disrupt local ecosystems. The distribution must be known to determine priority management to reduce the impact. This study aims to determine the current distribution of R. tuberosa and its estimated future distribution in Java and Madura Island, Indonesia using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) software. Therefore, 21 parameters in this modeling consisted of 19 Bioclimatic Variables, Elevation, and Solar Radiation. RCP scenarios 2.6 and 8.5 were used in this study to predict the future spread of R. tuberosa. Sample points were obtained from two data sources, the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and direct observation. The results of distribution modeling using MaxEnt showed an AUC value of 0.959. This value indicates that the modeling results using MaxEnt have better performance than the random method. Modeling the growth distribution of R. tuberosa plants in 2030, 2050, and 2080 shows a significant decrease in the distribution of these plants from year to year because there was significant climate change in that year, which was caused by an increase in CO2 levels, which led to global climate change, thus affecting the growth of invasive plants. The main parameter that predominantly influences the spread of R. tuberosa is BIO 9 (Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter). This needs to be of concern to environmental managers, because this plant is classified as an invasive species.
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